Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
