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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."